Canadian Open 2026 Biggest Upsets – Five Shocks That Changed Both Draws
The 2026 Canadian Open delivered more significant upsets across both the ATP Montreal and WTA Toronto draws than any edition of this tournament in recent memory. World No. 1 eliminated in the Round of 16. Top seed stunned on the same night as the fourth seed. A Wimbledon champion beaten from 5-1 down in the first set. A two-time champion dismissed in straight sets.
This is the complete Canadian Open 2026 biggest upsets guide, ranking the five most significant shocks from both draws and explaining exactly why each one mattered beyond the individual match result.
Quick Facts:
| Detail | Info |
| Biggest upset | Alexandrova def. Sabalenka (World No. 1) R16 |
| Most impactful single night | Day 5 Montreal — Zverev and Medvedev both eliminated |
| Best comeback upset | McNally from 5-1 down vs Noskova |
| Highest seed eliminated | Sabalenka, World No. 1 |
| Draw most affected | Montreal ATP – lost all top four seeds |
How We Ranked the Upsets
The Canadian Open 2026 biggest upsets are ranked by three factors combined — the ranking of the player eliminated, the impact on the draw that followed, and the dramatic circumstances of the match itself.
A first-round exit by a top seed scores higher than a quarterfinal exit by a lower seed. A match that involved a comeback or match point drama scores higher than a straightforward upset. And an upset that fundamentally changed the title race scores higher than one that simply eliminated one contender.
Ranking criteria:
| Factor | Weight |
| Ranking of player eliminated | High |
| Impact on draw and title race | High |
| Dramatic circumstances of match | Medium |
| Significance of occasion | Medium |
With those criteria applied, here are the five biggest upsets of the 2026 Canadian Open across both Montreal and Toronto.
Upset 1 – Alexandrova Eliminates World No. 1 Sabalenka
Match: Alexandrova def. Aryna Sabalenka 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
Round: Round of 16, Sobeys Stadium Toronto
Date: Saturday August 8
The biggest upset of the entire 2026 Canadian Open and one of the most dramatic match endings the tournament has produced in years. Sabalenka saved two match points with a service winner and an ace before double faulting on the third to hand Alexandrova the victory.
Why this ranks as the biggest upset:
| Factor | Detail |
| Player eliminated | World No. 1, tournament favourite |
| Circumstances | Double fault on match point, three match points total |
| Draw impact | Completely transformed Toronto title race |
| Ranking gap | World No. 1 vs No. 16 seed |
| Historical context | Third time Alexandrova has beaten a world No. 1 |
The draw impact:
Sabalenka’s exit removed the overwhelming favourite from the Toronto draw and opened the path for Swiatek, Rybakina, Gauff, and Fernandez to contend for the title. Without this result the final might never have been the Swiatek vs Rybakina 6-6 showdown that delivered one of the most anticipated title matches of the 2026 season.
For the complete match breakdown including every match point detail, read our dedicated Sabalenka out of Canadian Open 2026 article.
Upset 2 – Griekspoor Stuns Top Seed Zverev
Match: Griekspoor def. Alexander Zverev (1) 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4
Round: Round of 32, IGA Stadium Montreal
Date: Wednesday August 5
The top seed and Roland Garros champion Alexander Zverev arrived in Montreal as the favourite following the withdrawals of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic. He left having described his performance as probably the worst match of his entire season.
Why this ranks second:
| Factor | Detail |
| Player eliminated | Top seed, Roland Garros champion |
| Circumstances | Zverev won first set before collapse |
| Draw impact | Montreal draw lost its top seed in opening match |
| Griekspoor context | Admitted he had been close to quitting tennis this season |
| Combined with Medvedev | Same night chaos made this even more significant |
The Griekspoor story:
What made this upset compelling beyond the scoreline was Griekspoor’s own admission after the match. He had been close to walking away from professional tennis after a difficult 2026 season before Montreal. Defeating the top seed in his opening match was one of the most special wins of his career by his own description.
Zverev’s honest assessment:
“This was probably the worst match of the season.”
The draw impact:
Montreal lost its top seed in the opening round, setting the tone for what became the most wide-open Masters 1000 draw of the 2026 North American swing. For the full results from the night both Zverev and Medvedev were eliminated, read our Canadian Open Day 5 results recap.
Upset 3 – Van de Zandschulp Beats Medvedev on the Same Night
Match: Van de Zandschulp def. Daniil Medvedev (4) 6-3, 7-6(5)
Round: Round of 32, IGA Stadium Montreal
Date: Wednesday August 5
If Griekspoor eliminating the top seed was shocking, what happened hours later on the same night made it historic. Botic van de Zandschulp defeated fourth seed Daniil Medvedev to complete a single evening that stripped Montreal of both its top seed and fourth seed simultaneously.
Why this ranks third:
| Factor | Detail |
| Player eliminated | World No. 4, fourth seed |
| Circumstances | Happened same night as Zverev exit |
| Draw impact | Montreal without top and fourth seed in one evening |
| Historic context | First time since 1991 no top-5 players in Round of 16 |
| Combined impact | Three of top four seeds gone in 48 hours with FAA withdrawal |
The historic context:
The combined exits of Zverev, Medvedev, and the earlier withdrawal of FAA produced a result not seen in Montreal since 1991: no top-five seeds remaining in the Round of 16. That statistic captures the extraordinary scale of the upset sequence that defined Day 5 in Montreal.
The draw impact:
With Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic already withdrawn before the tournament, and now Zverev and Medvedev eliminated on the same night, the Montreal draw was left without any of its original top six seeds by Day 5. The path was clear for Shelton, Nakashima, Jodar, and Tien to emerge as genuine contenders for the title.
Upset 4 – McNally Stuns Wimbledon Champion Noskova
Match: McNally def. Linda Noskova (6) 7-6(5), 6-1
Round: Round of 32, Sobeys Stadium Toronto
Date: Monday August 5
The most dramatic comeback of the entire 2026 Canadian Open across either draw. Caty McNally trailed 5-1 in the first set against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova before winning 12 of the next 14 games to complete one of the most extraordinary reversals the Toronto draw has produced in years.
Why this ranks fourth:
| Factor | Detail |
| Player eliminated | Wimbledon champion, sixth seed |
| Circumstances | Noskova led 5-1 before McNally won 12 of next 14 games |
| Comeback factor | Most dramatic single-match turnaround of tournament |
| Second set | McNally won 6-1 after saving the first set |
| Noskova stats | Landed only 32% first serves in second set |
The comeback by numbers:
- Noskova led 5-1 in the first set
- McNally won five consecutive games to force tiebreak
- Tiebreak won 7-5 by McNally
- Second set won 6-1 as Noskova’s serve collapsed
- 12 of 14 games won from the 5-1 deficit point onward
McNally after the match:
“It’s never easy playing anyone, but especially a Wimbledon champion. I had to just focus on my side of the net.”
The draw impact:
Noskova’s exit removed the Wimbledon champion from the Toronto draw and opened the path in that section for Alexandra Eala, whose subsequent run to the Round of 16 became the Eala-Mania story that captivated Sobeys Stadium all week. For all confirmed results from that day, check our Canadian Open results page.
Upset 5 – Shnaider Dismisses Two-Time Champion Pegula
Match: Shnaider def. Jessica Pegula (3) 6-3, 6-2
Round: Quarterfinal, Sobeys Stadium Toronto
Date: Saturday August 8
Diana Shnaider’s dismissal of two-time Canadian Open champion Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals was the result that confirmed the Toronto draw had completely blown open following Sabalenka’s earlier exit. Pegula arrived as one of the most experienced players remaining in the draw with two titles at this specific tournament. She left in straight sets having won just five games.
Why this ranks fifth:
| Factor | Detail |
| Player eliminated | Two-time Canadian Open champion, third seed |
| Circumstances | First win for Shnaider over Pegula in five career meetings |
| Draw impact | Confirmed draw wide open alongside Sabalenka exit |
| Revenge factor | Avenged Washington DC loss from the previous week |
| Combined impact | Same day as Sabalenka exit, two top seeds gone in one afternoon |
The significance beyond the scoreline:
Shnaider had lost to Pegula in Washington DC just the previous week, making Toronto a direct revenge match that she won convincingly. Her first career victory over Pegula in five attempts, combined with the Sabalenka shock on the same afternoon, confirmed Saturday August 8 as the single most dramatic day of the entire Toronto draw.
The draw impact:
With Sabalenka and Pegula both eliminated on the same afternoon, the Toronto quarterfinals were suddenly without their No. 1 and No. 3 seeds. Only Rybakina and Gauff remained from the original top five, creating the wide-open semifinal and final that ultimately delivered the Swiatek vs Rybakina showdown on Thursday.
Honourable Mentions
Five upsets earned their own dedicated sections but the 2026 Canadian Open delivered several more results that deserve recognition as part of the broader upset story across both draws.
Norrie stuns de Minaur – Montreal Round of 16:
| Detail | Info |
| Match | Norrie def. de Minaur (3) 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-1 |
| Context | De Minaur was highest remaining seed after FAA, Zverev, Medvedev exits |
| Key moment | De Minaur double faulted on match point at 5-2 in second set |
| Impact | Montreal left without any top-three seed |
Shang saves five match points to beat Rublev – Montreal Round of 32:
| Detail | Info |
| Match | Shang def. Rublev (10) 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(5) |
| Context | Ranked 281st, returning from injury |
| Key moment | Saved five consecutive match points trailing 5-2 in third set |
| Impact | Biggest upset of the first week in Montreal |
Jodar beats Musetti twice in eight days – Montreal:
| Detail | Info |
| Matches | Beat Musetti in Washington then again in Montreal Round of 16 |
| Context | 19-year-old debut season, started year ranked No. 168 |
| Impact | Announced Jodar as one of most dangerous players on tour |
Korneeva upsets Jovic – Toronto Round of 16:
| Detail | Info |
| Match | Korneeva def. Jovic (13) 6-3, 6-4 |
| Context | Jovic had reached Australian Open quarterfinal in 2026 |
| Impact | Opened draw path, set up Korneeva vs Gauff quarterfinal |
For the Canadian Open draw context showing how these upsets reshaped both brackets, explore our complete tournament coverage.
What These Upsets Tell Us
The Canadian Open 2026 biggest upsets collectively deliver one of the clearest messages about the current state of professional tennis on both the ATP and WTA tours.
The broader picture:
- No safe passage for top seeds: Five of the original top six seeds in Montreal were eliminated or withdrew before the quarterfinals. Three of the original top five WTA seeds were gone before the semifinals in Toronto. The era of dominant seeds coasting through Masters 1000 draws is over.
- Depth has never been greater: Griekspoor, Van de Zandschulp, McNally, Shnaider, and Alexandrova are not fringe players who got lucky. Each produced multiple wins in Montreal or Toronto before their upset result, reflecting genuine quality rather than one-off upset potential.
- Mental strength decides matches: The Sabalenka double fault on match point. De Minaur’s double fault when serving out the match against Norrie. Shang saving five consecutive match points from 5-2 down. McNally winning 12 of 14 games from 5-1 down. The mental moments decided the biggest matches of the tournament.
- The draw chaos created compelling tennis: Without these upsets, the Canadian Open 2026 would have been a predictable progression of top seeds. Because of them it delivered an all-American men’s final, a Swiatek vs Rybakina women’s final, and storylines that will be discussed until the 2027 edition begins.
What it means for the US Open:
Every player who produced a major upset in Montreal or Toronto arrives at Flushing Meadows with confidence, ranking points, and the knowledge they can beat the best. Alexandrova, Shnaider, Griekspoor, and McNally all enter the US Open as more dangerous opponents than they were before August 1. For all confirmed Canadian Open results from both draws, explore our complete tournament coverage.
FAQs
Conclusion
The Canadian Open 2026 biggest upsets were not random accidents. They were the product of a professional tennis landscape where the gap between the top seeds and the best of the rest has never been smaller, and where mental strength at the critical moments separates winners from losers more consistently than ranking numbers ever could.
Alexandrova beating the world No. 1 on a double fault. Griekspoor and Van de Zandschulp eliminating the top and fourth seeds on the same night. McNally winning 12 of 14 games from 5-1 down. Shnaider dismissing a two-time champion in straight sets. Five results that changed both draws, created unforgettable storylines, and delivered the most compelling edition of this tournament in recent memory.
The US Open begins in two weeks. Every player who produced an upset in Montreal or Toronto arrives at Flushing Meadows with the confidence of someone who has already beaten the best. Watch them closely. Follow all our 2026 Canadian Open coverage on our Canadian Open results page.
